This retrospective study of prospectively collected data aimed to identify unique pain and disability trajectories in patients following lumbar discectomy surgery. Patients of this study population presented chiefly with lumbar radiculopathy and underwent discectomy surgery from thirteen sites enrolled in the CSORN registry. Outcome variables of interest included numeric rating scales for leg/back pain and modified Oswestry disability index scores at baseline, 3, 12, and 24 months post-operatively. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify distinct courses in each outcome. Data from 524 patients revealed three unique trajectories for leg pain (excellent = 18.4%, good = 55.4%, poor = 26.3%), disability (excellent = 59.7%, fair = 35.6%, poor = 4.7%) and back pain (excellent = 13.0%, good = 56.4%, poor = 30.6%). Construct validity was supported by statistically significant differences in the proportions of patients attaining the criteria for minimal important change (MIC; 30%) or clinical success in disability (50% or Oswestry score ≤ 22) (p < 0.001). The variable proportions of patients belonging to poor outcome trajectories shows a disconnect between improved disability and persistence of pain. It will be beneficial to incorporate this information into the realm of patient expectation setting in concert with future findings of potential factors predictive of subgroup membership.
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