Added value of waist circumference to body mass index for predicting fracture risk in obesity: a prospective study from the CARTaGENE cohort

Larger waist circumference is significantly associated with an increased risk of distal lower limb fractures in individuals aged 40-70 years with a body mass index within the normal or overweight category. Therefore, waist circumference provides additive information to body mass index for the identification of individuals at risk of obesity-related fractures.

Introduction: Waist circumference (WC) is a stronger risk factor of metabolic disorders than body mass index (BMI), but whether it holds true for fracture risk prediction remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate relationships between WC and fracture incidence within BMI categories and evaluate whether BMI modifies these relationships.

Methods: Men and women aged 40-70 years from the CARTaGENE cohort were divided by BMI category at baseline: normal weight, overweight, and obesity. Incident fractures were identified over 7 years via linkage with healthcare administrative databases. Cox proportional hazard models estimated the relationships between WC and incident fractures at any site and by skeletal site within each BMI category. Results are reported as adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) per 10 cm increase in WC. Effect modification was evaluated qualitatively by comparing relationships between BMI categories.

Results: Of the 18 236 individuals included, 754 sustained a fracture. Significant relationships were found between WC and distal lower limb fractures in the normal (1.25 [1.08, 1.45]) and overweight (1.28 [1.07, 1.52]) BMI categories, but not in the obesity category. In the overweight category, we found an increased risk of distal upper limb fractures with increasing WC (1.49 [1.04, 2.15]). No significant relationship was observed regarding WC and fracture risk at any site or major osteoporotic fractures. An effect modification of BMI on the relationships between WC and distal lower limb fractures was observed.

Conclusion: WC provides both independent and additive information to BMI for the identification of individuals at risk of obesity-related fractures.