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Stalter LN, Hanlon BM, Bushaw KJ, et al. Best Case/Worst Case: A Multisite Randomized Trial of Scenario Planning for Patients With Late-Stage Kidney Disease. J Am Geriatr Soc. 2026 Sep 5. doi: 10.1111/jgs.70695. (Original study)
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Best Case/Worst Case (BC/WC) is a communication tool to support nephrologists and older adults with advanced chronic kidney disease with decisions about dialysis. We compared the effectiveness of training nephrologists to use BC/WC versus usual care on receipt of palliative care, quality of life (QOL), quality of communication, dialysis initiation, and death.

PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: From February 2021 to December 2023, we enrolled patients at 10 US sites who were = 60 years, had an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) = 24 mL/min/1.73m2, with estimated survival = 18 months, and were considering dialysis initiation in the outpatient setting. We randomized nephrologists to intervention or usual care.

METHODS: In this cluster randomized trial, we followed patients for up to 2 years using chart review and patient and caregiver surveys. The primary outcome was receipt of palliative care within 12 months of patient enrollment.

RESULTS: We enrolled 68 nephrologists (36 intervention) and 268 patients (105 intervention). On intention-to-treat analysis, receipt of palliative care within 12 months did not significantly differ between groups (hazard ratio (HR) 0.94, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 0.59-1.52; p = 0.812). Patients of intervention nephrologists were more likely to initiate dialysis (HR, 1.50, 95% CI, 1.00-2.25; p = 0.048) and report worse QOL throughout the study (FACIT-Pal effect estimate, -6.51; 95% CI, -12.20, -0.81; p = 0.025; FACT-G effect estimate, -4.78; 95% CI, -8.35, -1.22; p = 0.010). We found no significant differences in intensity of treatment at the end of life, quality of communication, or on-study death between groups.

CONCLUSION: Training nephrologists to use the BC/WC communication tool does not significantly affect receipt of palliative care or other measurable clinical outcomes.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04466865 (URL: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04466865), registered 07/07/2020.

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Physician rater

A negative study, but useful to know that training has little impact on decision making and the outcome. It would be more useful to know why!
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